This is from Robert Rubin's June 11 commencement address http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2002369786_sundayrubin10.html (its good and its short) at the University of Washington. Rubin was U.S. treasury secretary from 1995 to 1999 and wrote the excellent book In an Uncertain World http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0375757309/qid=1121056865. I love his probabilistic way of thinking that he outlines.
I agree with it so much, I really think high school should teach advanced statistics and probability rather than calculus. I can't think of the last day that I actually used calculus and I can't think of the last day I didn't use some form of probability.
This Scientific American article http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000935E5-CCA0-1238-8CA083414B7FFE9F continues on this theme, looking at how to make a decision will be good in most environments rather than trying to make a decision that will be best for a particular environment, when there is uncertainty regarding the future environment.
On May 23, 2006 Matt wrote :